ARR Multiple Snapshot
This is a valuation-to-run-rate comparison, not a clean ranking. The Western labs use private-market valuations; MiniMax and Zhipu use public market caps. Zhipu is shown with an estimated company ARR range because it only discloses MaaS API ARR.
| Company | Valuation / market cap | ARR used | Valuation / ARR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic | ~$965B | ~$47B run-rate revenue | ~20.5x |
| OpenAI | ~$852B | ~$25B reported; ~$33B gross-equivalent sensitivity | ~26x-34x |
| StepFun | $10B $10B reported IPO target valuation | ~$165M 2026E revenue | ~60.6x |
| Moonshot / Kimi | ~$20B | >$200M ARR | ~100x |
| MiniMax | $18.7B Market cap · live, 2026-06-09 | $150M+ ARR | ~124x |
| Zhipu / Z.ai | $64.9B Market cap · live, 2026-06-09 | $300M-$500M estimated ARR | ~130x-216x |
OpenAI / Anthropic footnote: reported run-rates are not normalized. OpenAI's March 2026 valuation is from OpenAI; its revenue growth basis is from Semafor. Anthropic's May 2026 valuation and run-rate are from Axios; its growth basis is from Axios. Semafor separately reported that OpenAI counts cloud-partner token sales closer to net revenue, while Anthropic counts closer to gross revenue, and that OpenAI's run-rate could be up to $8B higher if counted on a gross basis.
Zhipu footnote: disclosed MaaS API ARR was roughly $250M as of March 2026. FY2025 API/open-platform revenue was 26.3% of total revenue, but that historical recognized-revenue mix should not be mechanically applied to ARR because much of the non-API business is on-premises enterprise deployment and may not be recurring. The $300M-$500M range is an Atlas estimate, not company-disclosed total ARR.
Commercialization revenue ramp
Toggle ARR/run-rate versus recognized revenue, and switch between calendar time and months since each lab's first public model/product baseline. When both U.S. and China are selected, the chart switches to log scale because the dollar gap is too large for a linear chart to stay readable.
Alibaba disclosed RMB8.971B (~$1.3B) of AI-related product revenue inside Cloud Intelligence. This is stronger than generic cloud revenue, but it is still Alibaba platform revenue around Qwen, Bailian, training, inference, and cloud AI products, not a clean Qwen product/API line.
via Alibaba results / SCMPMiniMax reported 573.5M CNY (~$79M) FY2025 revenue, up 158.9% YoY, with ARR above $150M.
via MiniMax results / KR AsiaZhipu reported RMB724M (~$105M) FY2025 revenue, with cloud/API revenue growing quickly. Its disclosed MaaS API ARR was around $250M as of March 2026; our broader company ARR estimate is $300M-$500M.
via Knowledge Atlas annual reportMoonshot reportedly passed $200M ARR while Kimi reached 50M+ monthly active users.
via TechCrunchStepFun reportedly generated about 500M CNY (~$69M) in 2025 revenue, with a 2026 forecast near 1.2B CNY (~$165M).
via CMBI citing CaijingByteDance does not disclose Seed/Doubao revenue. 36Kr reports Volcano Engine leading public-cloud model calls and highlights Doubao's phone/agent push as an ecosystem-control test.
via 36KrXiaomi reported $14.63B in FY2025 Smart EV + AI segment revenue, but MiMo revenue is not separately disclosed.
via Sina FinanceTencent does not disclose Hunyuan revenue separately. Signal comes from cloud, Yuanbao, and platform reach.
via Tencent annual reportLongCat fits Meituan workflows, but no separate revenue disclosure exists yet.
Baichuan has a concrete healthcare vertical, but scale remains unclear.
DeepSeek has API pricing and huge model impact, but no disclosed revenue scale.
via 36Kr